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It appears that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic Nomination -- the 538 website rates his chances as "1 in 2." Bernie is not my favorite candidate; nonetheless, if he wins the Democratic nomination, I'll work hard for him. Here's my assessment of Bernie's strengths and weaknesses.

The latest Real Clear Politics summary of national polls shows Sanders beating Trump by an average of 4.7 percent. Nonetheless, we remember all too well that Clinton led Trump throughout a long and agonizing campaign and then lost the election, courtesy of the electoral college. Bernie can beat Trump but it's far from certain. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/24/who-would-win-trump-sanders-election/)

Sanders' strengths: 1. Enthusiasm. If you've followed the 2020 Democratic nomination process, you've probably noticed that Bernie Sanders' followers are the most enthusiastic. There are a lot of reasons for this, but Sanders' rallies have the most energy.

It isn't always the case that follower enthusiasm translates into get-out-the-vote energy, but it is a major consideration; in my experience, 2008 Obama election workers were more enthusiastic than 2016 Clinton workers. Enthusiasm is an important factor because, at the moment, Democratic voters, in general, are more enthusiastic than Republican voters. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exclusive-ahead-of-2020-election-a-blue-wave-is-rising-in-the-cities-polling-analysis-shows-idUSKBN20D1EG )

Imagine two campaign rallies in Ohio: one for Trump and the other for the Democratic nominee. Only a Bernie rally would match the enthusiasm at the Trump rally. This makes sense because both candidates rile up their audience with a populist, "blow up the establishment" message.

2. Broad Coalition: Bernie appears to be able to build the broad coalition that Democrats have been yearning for. The Nevada Democratic caucus exit polls (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/entrance-polls-2020-nevada-caucuses/) indicate that Sanders carried most Demographic groups; for example, all age groups except those voters aged 65 and over. (Sanders carried 29 percent of White-non Hispanic voters and 51 percent of Hispanic voters.)

A lot of concerns that we might have had about Bernie's ability to build a broad coalition have been assuaged in the last couple of weeks. His core message resonates with all segments of he Democratic Party -- although he needs to do more to reach out to women who were once ardent Hillary supporters. (Bernie's core message is "the system is rigged:" "Bernie has fought tirelessly for working families, focusing on the shrinking middle class and growing gap between the rich and everyone else.")

3. Swing State Strength: Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because she faltered in critical swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wiscconsin. According to Real Clear Politics, in Michigan, Sanders leads Trump by 5.3 percent; in Pennsylvania, Sanders leads Trump by 3 percent; and in Wisconsin, Trump leads Sanders by 1 percent. (BTW: In the last Ohio poll, Sanders was ahead of Trump; they're tied in Florida.)

Sanders' weaknesses: 1. Socialist label: Bernie describes himself as a "Democratic Socialist." This has given pundits a huge opportunity to criticize him. Many mainstream-media talking heads have declared that because of his socialist label, Sanders will never beat Trump. I'm not convinced that the socialist label will make that much of a difference.

First, Sanders isn't really a socialist. New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, observed: "The thing is, Bernie Sanders isn’t actually a socialist in any normal sense of the term. He doesn’t want to nationalize our major industries and replace markets with central planning; he has expressed admiration, not for Venezuela, but for Denmark. He’s basically what Europeans would call a social democrat — and social democracies like Denmark are, in fact, quite nice places to live, with societies that are, if anything, freer than our own."

Second, there will be two kinds of 2020 campaign ads: vitriol and substance. The Republican vitriol ads will call Bernie a socialist and predict dire consequences. The Democratic vitriol ads will call Trump a pathological liar and a Russian asset. If you already like Trump you will vote for him regardless of the negative ads; if you don't like Trump, you're unlikely to vote for him regardless of what they say about Bernie.

Nonetheless, a recent academic study published in Vox (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data ) suggests that a Sanders' candidacy would be problematic: "Our survey data reveals voters of all parties moving to Trump if Sanders is nominated, a liability papered over by young voters who claim they would be inspired to vote by Sanders alone."

2. Weak Coattails: The main reason Democratic pundits are worried about Bernie is because they fear that a "Democratic Socialist" will hurt "down ballot" Democratic candidates. Democratic candidate Michael Bloomberg has made this assertion: "Bernie Sanders would 'jeopardize' the re-election of 42 House Democrats in battleground districts and therefore the party’s majority rule of the chamber if the self-described Democratic socialist becomes the party’s nominee for president."

In 2020, Democrats have to take back both the Presidency and the Senate. If "Moscow Mitch" McConnell remains Senate Majority Leader, he will block most Democratic legislative initiatives. From here, the contested Senate seats are: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, and North Carolina. (Democrats have to win four.)

Consider the situation in Arizona, where there's a contested Senate seat now held by Republican Martha McSally -- a Trump acolyte. In the 2020 Arizona Senatorial election, she'll be opposed by former astronaut Mark Kelly -- husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords. In 2016, Arizona narrowly went to Trump. Would Bernie Sanders help or hurt Mark Kelly?

I think that having Bernie as the 2020 Democratic nominee will help improve Arizona voter turnout and that will help Mark Kelly. Republicans will run negative ads targeting Bernie and Democrats will run negative ads targeting Trump; those will cancel out.

The Nevada exit polls indicated that the most important issues were: health care, climate change, and income inequality. If these are the most important issues in (neighboring) Arizona, Sanders will help Mark Kelly because Bernie is much stronger on these issues than is Trump. (Actually Trump isn't strong on any issue other than the "economy" and, at the moment, this is teetering because of the impact of the coronavirus.)

I believe that Bernie will help down-ballot Democratic senatorial candidates in Arizona, Colorado, and Maine. I'm not sure about Georgia, Kansas, and North Carolina.

3. Temperament: Like Trump, Bernie offers his own brand of charisma. That attracts loyal followers but masks his irascibility. He really is crochety Uncle Bernie.

Writing in the New York Times ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/bernie-sanders.html?referringSource=articleShare), Frank Bruni observes: "[Bernie Sanders] isn’t and has never been popular with his Democratic colleagues in the Senate... I know that because I’ve heard some of those colleagues talk about him, describing him as arrogant, uncooperative, unyielding, even mean."

Summary: Maybe the 2020 election will come down to "our S.O.B. versus their S.O.B." Personally, I'd hoped that the Democratic candidate would be someone who could make progress on healing the nation. Perhaps that's too much to hope for.

If a behavior doesn't serve a good purpose, maybe it should be changed. (When I say "good purpose" I mean, does the behavior contribute to the happiness and wellness of oneself and others?) A sign of having mental plasticity is being able to change an outmoded or non-useful behavior (I won't use the term "inappropriate," since this is a bigoted terminology.)

Retaining mental plasticity well into middle age does not have to be excluded from the domains of those with mental illness. When we can adapt to changing conditions, to an increasingly demanding environment, to higher and more expectations, and if we can do this without excessive displeasure, this is a major form of success, and almost guarantees that we will do well.

Mental plasticity is where you are still young when you are in your fifties, sixties, seventies, or more. It is the willingness to learn new things and to revise outmoded behaviors. Mental plasticity means that we are not locked-in to one way of doing things, and we are not crystallized in how we react. We are capable of change.

Change is the only constant. If the world changes, we must change to adapt to that. If we can't do that, we become maladapted. If we can't adapt, we can't survive. If we can't survive, we will either become institutionalized, or we will die. -more-

Although the World Health Organization has not declared the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic a pandemic, an epidemic of world-wide proportions, with no containment in sight. The virus has spread to at least 49 countries. As of February 26, 2020, there are 80,980 confirmed cases in 39 countries and territories with at least 2,770 deaths.

COVID-19 seems to spread like influenza, through the air, person to person. Unlike Ebola, SARS and MERS individuals can transmit this coronavirus before the onset of symptoms even if they don’t become ill. The fact that mild cases are difficult to differentiate from colds or the flu only complicates the diagnosis. Vaccines are many months away, at the earliest.

Presently, there are 60 cases of the Coronavirus in the U.S. However, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing that an outbreak in the U.S. is a question of when, not if, and urged hospitals, businesses and schools to prepare.

Laurie Garrett, a former senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize winning science writer, writes in Foreign Policy that Trump has sabotaged America’s coronavirus response. -more-

Going Viral

With the coronavirus taking over the airways—both broadcast and bronchial—there was a line in a February 27 Chronicle report that raised some concerns. In story on "negative pressure rooms," the Chron stated: "These rooms have HVAC systems that suck in contaminated air, filter it, and release it outside so that it doesn't contaminate the air in the rest of the hospital."

What gives? The HVAC systems don't completely decontaminate the air?

So the HVAC systems intentionally release contaminated air outside the hospitals?

Sounds like another reason to stay far away from hospitals if you want to stay healthy. -more-