Columns

Last weekend, coordinated strikes on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities knocked out half of the country's oil capacity. On Monday, U.S. oil prices spiked. Without presenting convincing evidence, the Trump administration and the Saudis claim that Iran was behind the attack. Iran denies responsibility. Given Trump’s history of lying, who would believe any “evidence” Trump provided? 

Assuming Iran is responsible for the strikes, the blame principally lies with Trump's failed Iran policy beginning when he unilaterally pulled out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal between Iran, the U.S., the P5+1(the five permanent members of the UN Security Council —China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, U.S.—plus Germany) together with the European Union. Iran was abiding by the deal. After the deal pullout, the U.S. renewed the sanctions and added new ones. 

To date, it is unclear whether Trump wants behavior or regime change. This leaves Iran in an untenable negotiating position. 

Iran is feeling the economic impact of the sweeping sanctions. What is Iran supposed to do in the face of Trump’s intransigence, keep suffering, or react? 

Meanwhile, Trump is “locked and loaded,” but for what? Remember, Trump was “cocked and loaded” back in June when Iran shot down a U.S. drone they claimed was in their air space, but he supposedly called off an attack at the last minute. 

The danger, of course, is that Trump may inadvertently stumble into a war with Iran.