Public Comment
Donald Trump Chokes
One of the most frustrating moments in sports is when a star player folds under pressure. In football this happens when a famous QB throws an interception at the end of the game, or an ace running back fumbles on what would have been the winning play. In baseball this happens when the star pitcher walks in the winning run. In basketball this happens when the team captain insists calls for the ball and then misses what would have been the winning shot.
Donald Trump isn’t a star player, but to his base he has been a champion on a winning streak. Then, on April 2nd, Trump choked: he announced his stupid tariff policy. Trump committed an epic unforced error that will dramatically change US politics.
Trump had been President for 72 days and during this time done much to please his base. While he had not brought down inflation, he had blamed high prices on Joe Biden. Trump had fulfilled many of his “mass deportation” policies. And Trump, and his acolyte Elon Musk, had taken a chainsaw to the federal bureaucracy. Trump had not brokered the end of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but he appeared to have started an encouraging process. Trump has signed 109 executive orders. To his base, Trump seemed to be keeping his campaign promises. Then came April 2nd and his tariffs speech.
Although Trump talked about tariffs during his 2024 presidential campaign, it’s a safe bet that most of his base didn’t understand the consequences of what he was proposing. If Trump voters thought about tariffs at all, they probably assumed they would bring down prices. It will come as a shock to Trump’s base that, effective April 9th, Trump tariffs will raise prices on most household items. The tariffs will be felt by all US households.
On April 2nd, Trump unveiled double-digit tariff rates on almost all US trading partners – with the notable exception of Russia. Trump claimed that each tariff rate was determined through a holistic consideration of both tariff and non-tariff trade barriers placed on the U.S. by each foreign country. However, the tariff rate placed on each country appears to have been calculated by taking the U.S. trade deficit with each country and dividing it by that country’s exports to the U.S., then halving that figure in certain cases to reflect what Trump described as “kind reciprocal tariffs.” The Trump administration created a unique measure.
Former treasury secretary Lawrence Summers wrote: “It’s now clear that the [Trump] Administration computed reciprocal tariffs without using tariff data. This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or RFK thought is to vaccine science. The Trump tariff policy makes little sense EVEN if you believe in protectionist mercantilist economics.” Trump took a course of action that will raise prices on most everything and did not have a solid case for doing this.
Why did Trump raise tariffs? There are those who claim that Trump is “crafty” and instigated the tariffs as part of a complex scheme to negotiate favorable trade deals with our key trading partners. Perhaps this is true, but I favor an alternative explanation: Trump is irrational and, therefore, often influenced by whacko ideas.
In Trump’s first presidential term he voiced whacko ideas – remember when he recommended injecting bleach as an antidote to the Coronavirus? – but during those four years, Trump was surrounded by experienced staff who kept him for acting out his most outrageous notions. In Trump 2.0, the seasoned staff members are gone, and Trump has leeway to act out his craziest impulses. We’ve seen this with immigration: recently, Trump signed an order using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 as the legal basis for his deportation of alleged “Tren de Aragua” gang members. As a result, Trump sent 238 to El Salvador without giving them due process,
That’s the bad news. The good news is that Donald Trump choked on his most important 2025 decision: tariffs. Instead of promoting reasonable action to bring down prices, Trump foisted a whacko idea on the US. Trump’s tariffs will raise prices – inflation will increase. Many economists predict that Trump’s tariffs will cripple the economy and push the US into recession. And, Trump cannot blame these actions on Joe Biden; Trump will own them, and “the Trump economy.” As conditions worsen, Trump’s base will get the message: Trump has not kept his central campaign promise to fix the economy. Trump’s base will turn on him and Trump’s power will wane. Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Congress will lessen.
