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After four weeks, we have a good idea what Trump intends for his second term. He doesn’t plan to “fix” the economy, because he has no idea what to do. Trump is serious about mass deportation, but his program will be ineffective. He wants to remake the federal bureaucracy and doesn’t care what gets broken in the process. Trump intends to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent and is willing to make drastic changes in federal entitlements to pay for this. And Trump intends to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict; sadly, he’s willing to throw Ukraine under the bus to accomplish this. 

The Economy: Donald Trump was elected president because of his promise to fix the economy. On February 12^th, the Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation surged in January, gaining a half a point as the cost of gas, rents, and groceries went up. Trump now says this inflation is Biden’s fault and disavows responsibility for the economy: “I had nothing to do with that.” ( https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5152657-donald-trump-rising-inflation-doge-tariffs-economy/ ) 

Immigration: Trump has declared a state of emergency and shut down all immigration (except for white Afrikaners). There were raids throughout the country, staffed by ICE personnel supplemented by members of the FBI, DEA, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. After one month, Trump’s numbers lag Biden’s. ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/02/15/ice-arrests-immigration-deportations/ ) Unless ICE gets a lot more money – billions – it will fail. 

Mass Firings: After one month, 77,000 federal employees accepted Trump’s buyout offer. Trump followed this by laying off thousands who had not completed their probationary period – the Washington Post estimated this would affect 200,000 employees. Among the agencies affected are the Center for Disease Control, Energy Department, IRS, National Park Service, and the Veteran’s Administration. Trump and his acolyte, Elon Musk, are determined to keep firing federal employees. This is unpopular with all voters. 

Foreign Policy: Trump’s foreign policy has become clear. The US will withdraw from traditional alliances and go it alone. Trump has offended most of our traditional allies, On February 12^th, Defense Secretary Hegseth told NATO that the US defense priorities “lie outside Europe.” Trump will withdraw the US from NATO. 

This new isolationism has terrible consequences for Ukraine. Trump wants to end US involvement in the conflict and withdraw US aid. Trump prefers to negotiate solely with Russian Premier Putin and is prepared to give Putin two things he wants: Russia will keep the Ukrainian territory it has seized, and the US will block Ukraine from joining NATO. Unless Europe comes to Ukraine’s aid, Russia will win. 

March Fiscal Showdown: Around March 14th, the federal government will run out of funding, shortly thereafter we will hit the debt limit. How will Trump 2.0 respond? 

Donald Trump wants his 2017 tax cuts reauthorized (cost $4.5 trillion) and additional funds appropriated for Defense and Homeland Security ($340 billion). The GOP-controlled Senate and House are working on a response but have different approaches. The House has stuffed everything into “one big, beautiful bill.” To appease GOP fiscal conservatives, they’ve added $2 trillion in spending cuts, which include Medicaid and the SNAP program. 

The Senate has two bills. The first focuses on funds for Defense and Homeland Security. The second – scheduled for later in the year – features Trump’s tax cuts. This week Trump announced that he does not approve of this approach, he wants “one big, beautiful bill.” 

What’s going to happen? It appears that house Republicans have a problem: they want to reauthorize Trump’s tax cuts but cannot agree on how to pay for this. (By the way, most Americans do not support cuts to Medicaid). 

National Security: Trump 2.0 represents an unprecedented threat to national security. Let’s consider the actors in this drama: 

1.Donald Trump: Regards Vladimir Putin as an ally and has adopted his perspective. 

2.Elon Musk: Trump’s enforcer, head of “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), authorized to go anywhere and do whatever Trump wants.  

3.J.D. Vance: Trump’s messenger, tasked with delivering bad news to US allies. 

4.DOGE task force: Small group of Musk employees charged with charging into US agencies and tapping into their computer systems.  

5.Gabbard, Hegseth, and Patel: Incompetents assigned to oversee US Security. Gabbard as director national intelligence, Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and Patel as director of FBI.) 

In Trump 2.0 there’s not only a change in foreign policy -- China bad, Russia good -- but also a significant deterioration in the national security process. Not only are there weak people managing US security, but there are individuals without security clearances – the DOGE brothers – diving deep into classified computer systems. 

Trump’s tariffs threaten to push the economy into recession. Trump’s national security changes expose us to a horrific event.