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What Broke and How to Fix It
Democrats should begin to prepare for the 2026 midterms. Before we get started, we need to understand what broke in 2024.
1.Democrats didn’t get out the vote.
In 2020, there were 155 million voters; Joe Biden defeated Trump by four percentage points, 81 million votes to 74 million. In 2024, there were 145 million voters; Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by two + percentage points, 74 million votes to 71 million votes.
Between 2020 and 2024, Trump’s absolute vote total remained constant at 74 million. However, the Democratic candidate’s total diminished by 10 million votes (a loss of 6 percent of 155 million.) These voters didn’t disappear, they made a choice.
2.It’s the Economy, Stupid.
A) In the 2024 presidential election, why did the presidential Democratic vote diminish by 10 million? The prevailing explanation is that was a result of the post-pandemic economy. This same pattern happened in all the western democracies after the pandemic: about six percent of voters abandoned the ruling party and voted elsewhere in the next election.
Pollsters theorize that because of the economic malaise produced by the pandemic, western-world voters were angry. Therefore, they penalized the ruling party – on the average of six percent. For example, in England, voters moved from the Conservative Party to Labor.
In the United States, angry Democrats penalized the Party by not voting for Kamala Harris. Other Americans chose to show displeasure by not voting for any major Presidential candidate. For example, RINOs did not leave the Republican Party; they chose to not vote for Trump or Harris.
In 2024, 10 million votes were not cast for President. This means that Trump supporters are in the minority; the true size of the Trump opposition is 81 million.
B) In the US there hasn’t been an actual economic recession, but for many voters it feels like there has been one. Polls consistently show; a strong majority “… feel like the US is going in the wrong direction.” (61.3 percent according to the last Real Clear Politics poll.)
gRobert Reich writes, “On [11/5], according to exit polls, Americans voted mainly on the economy — and their votes reflected their class and level of education. While the economy has improved over the last two years according to standard economic measures, most Americans without college degrees — that’s the majority — have not felt it. Most of the geconomy’s gains have gone to the top… This has caused many Americans to feel frustrated and angry. Trump gave voice to that anger. Harris did not.”
gOf course, racism and sexism were factors in the election. I’m arguing that the dominate factor was the economy.
3.Trump can’t fix it.
In this dark hour, there are several positives to consider. Trump voters are the minority. Trump may govern as if he has a “mandate,” but the reality is different.
ggTrump talks about many issues, but for 2024 voters the number one issue was the economy. Trump has two years to fix the economy. He has 24 months to respond to the economic malaise that led to his election victory.
Trump won’t be able to fix the economy because 1) he, personally, has no idea what to do. And 2) the Republican Party’s economic philosophy does not provide the answer. Republicans believe in” trickle-down” economics; they believe that if they give tax cuts to billionaires then “a rising tide will lift all boats.” Trickle-down economics won’t fix the current economic malaise.
Going forward: whenever Trump/Republicans do something outrageous, the opposition should say, “What’s this got to do with fixing the economy?”
By the 2026 midterms, voters will blame Trump for the bad economy. The missing 10 million voters will return to the Democratic opposition, which will have a clear majority.
4.in 2026, Voters will repudiate Republicans.
g Trump was elected by a minority of the electorate and given a chance to fix the economy. He won’t be able to accomplish this, Instead, Trump will bring chaos to American society.
Democrats have a clear path to victory in the 2026 midterms: Develop a plan for a just economy. Reach out to disaffected voters. Mobilize.
The 2026 midterm themes are clear: Fix the economy. Stop the chaos. Vote Democratic.